Tech In Transit: Automated Transit

Tech In Transit is a series that focuses on breakthrough innovations and technological advancements in the transportation and transit industries. We hope to keep you updated on these matters for the purpose of being aware of future changes that could affect the ways you utilize public transportation.

It has become quite clear that artificial intelligence will transform human society throughout the 21st century; to what extent it will do this, however, remains to be seen. One thing is almost certain though; our roads will be teeming with autonomous vehicles by the end of the upcoming decade. Not only will these vehicles be autonomous but many of them will also be electric in order to lower carbon emissions. To reduce emissions further still, people may be urged to ride shared autonomous vehicles (SAV) such as Ubers, Lyfts, shuttles and buses instead of personal vehicles. To see why, check out the “Environmental Impact” section of our previous article that highlighted the benefits of public transportation (TLDR: one vehicle with many passengers results in far less emissions than many vehicles with one passenger, even if all vehicles are electric). Furthermore, the more autonomous vehicles and fewer human-driven vehicles there are on the road, the more predictable and subsequently efficient and safe all traffic becomes. Shared autonomous vehicles may sound like distant future technology to some, but they are already in the early adoption phases today. But before we take a look at some modern examples of SAV, it will be useful to briefly review the current state of autonomous vehicles in general.

Modern Autonomous Vehicles

There are five levels of vehicle autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). SAE Level 5, or full automation, means that a vehicle’s AI has the ability to drive on any road and in any condition that a human driver could manage. While it was previously predicted that Level 5 autonomy would be achieved by the early 2020s, it is no longer exactly clear when fully autonomous vehicles will be on the road since it has proven difficult to account for human unpredictability on the road. However, the late 2020s should be a safe bet.

Tesla Autopilot and Audi’s AI Traffic Jam Pilot system are capable of Level 2 or partial automation (which still requires an engaged driver) and Level 3 or conditional automation (where the vehicle handles most aspects of driving but human oversight is still required). There are currently no vehicles capable of Level 4 or high automation (the ability to drive on some roads, under some conditions, such as only in clear weather or below a certain speed) that are currently available to consumers. However, in 2018 Waymo introduced Waymo One, a SAV taxi service, in Phoenix, Arizona that would be considered to have SAE Level 4 autonomy. But Waymo One is not the only current example of SAVs.

Modern Autonomous Buses

In 2015, the French firm EasyMile introduced the EasyMile EZ10, a SAV passenger shuttle which was used in late 2016 by First Transit to serve the first SAV shuttle route in North America, shuttling workers throughout the Bishop Ranch business park in San Ramon, after the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) approved it to operate on public roads. Their shuttles, while fully autonomously piloted, would qualify as Level 3 since a human attendant was required to be on board to stop a shuttle in case of an emergency. Since 2016, the EZ10 has been introduced in Houston, Texas, Tallinn, Estonia and several more cities. In Tallinn, where the EZ10 crosses only one intersection with live traffic, it has had a few close calls due to failing to notice important environmental cues. However, the company has since improved the shuttles such that they no longer require an on board attendant and can be monitored remotely and will be operating in live traffic by 2020. These are baby steps towards a grander vision of automated mass transit.

The Future of Automated Transit

A report that concluded a research project conducted in the European Union (EU) envisions a future enabled by not just autonomous vehicles but a complete “Automated Road Transport System” (ARTS) which would allow people, especially in urban areas, to enjoy “seamless mobility from door to door without the need of owning a vehicle”. Such a system would be centrally controlled, allowing vehicles to communicate and cooperate in real time to minimize travel times and energy expenditure. This all points to an eventual shift away from private and towards public transportation in order to alleviate congestion in urban environments, shorten travel times, reduce carbon emissions and nearly eliminate road accidents. It is not so hard to imagine a highly dynamic transit system which can automatically dispatch sedan-sized rideshare vehicles, mid-sized shuttles or full-sized buses all depending on the volume of riders trying to travel between destinations. Hopefully this is a future that we can help facilitate and enjoy sooner rather than later.